We’ve got our table, and ScoreCzar has his computer and formula. Do the two agree?
The ScoreCzar.org EPLWA Rankings Page is food for thought. How close are the clubs of the EPLWA in terms of performance using his computer formula? Does that jive with the official table?
It turns out that there are some differences.
ScoreCzar’s rankings have South Sound FC in first, with a solid score lead over second-place Vancouver. Bellingham is third, but just barely edging out Spokane. While Spokane and Yakima are tied in the table, ScoreCzar gives a little breathing room nod to the Shadow.
Then there’s Wenatchee United. Last in the EPLWA table with three points, Scoreczar has them ahead of both Seattle and WestSound FC, sitting 6th.
Does the computer know best, or is it only the table that can really do the talking?
See EPLWA rankings here: http://www.scoreczar.org/classifications/294-soccer-semi-pro-eplwa
Scott Odiorne explains his computer ranking system
Unlike other computer ranking services, I disclose the formula and it’s actually very simple. There are however, several nuances that are just too boring to list, but do exist.
Overall Power Rating (OPR) is determined when Goals Allowed (D) is divided by Goals Scored (O). That figure is then multiplied by the Strength of Schedule (SOS).
Strength of Schedule is determined by placing an opponent’s OPR into the SOS column, adding the column and then dividing by the number of games played, otherwise known as an average.
The basic structure of the formula is: OPR = D/O x SOS
If one was to replicate the formula on a spreadsheet of your own, you will be confronted with several issues that may derail your efforts. These are the nuances, and providing you get past the first issue of which advance excel formula is required to get the numbers to talk, you will then soon discover that your spreadsheet will quite literally explode. It’s a bit of a trick to get it to report correctly, and if you are interested in exactly how it’s done, just send me an email and I won’t tell you!
The system needs data to work properly, and since it divides Goals Allowed by Goals Scored zero is not a usable number. When there are several teams who have either not scored a goal, or have not allowed a goal the ratings are more of an indication than a true evaluation. The EPLWA is half-way through it’s season so the numbers are gaining power.
Another issue that has been raised is; how come a team rating changes even though they didn’t play? All teams will eventually get connected. Your opponents’ OPR will affect your OPR after every game they play, and even your opponents’ opponents’ will still have an influence on your team rating. It’s the numerical equivalent of the telephone game, except the original message doesn’t become distorted by the end of the game.
Finally, please accept the ratings in the spirit in which it is intended. The idea is not to turn the league into College Football but rather to bring a new context and perhaps generate more interest. The numbers mean absolutely nothing in the overall scope of things, other than they are interesting. But, they are nothing compared to the real action happening down on the pitch.
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